Luck (and unluckiness) is quite a heavy topic. You probably can get an Ph.D degree researching about this and we need a wise philosopher to explain it fully to us. So, forget about that. Let us see how we get (or not getting) our luck in bridge in practical manner.

Quick definition first

“Luck” can be defined lightly (at least for the purpose of this article) as “[unlikely] good outcome outside your control from random event“. If it is a bad outcome we call it “bad luck” or “unlucky“. So, when you cash out your Ace in a 4-4 fit and the King drop, then you can say you are lucky, because: [unlikely (only 5.6% chance of King singleton)], it’s a good outcome, it’s outside your control and it’s from random event.

You might notice a square bracket on word “unlikely” above. The question from now is whether an event have to be unlikely before you consider it as “lucky”? We will get back here later.

Technically , No More Luck…

Random result branded you? No way !

Nowadays, we all play “duplicate” bridge. The exact same board will be played by multiple table and will be scored fairly. In a way, this already remove the “luck factor” from bridge. Because everybody in a tournament practically playing the same board, then whoever get more skill will be the winner, right ? Probably not quite like that….

Still there? The “luck” factor…?

Let us see an example. You know finesse is 50-50 chance, so being a better bridge player you opt to 100% chance and applying end-played theme so you do not have to take that 50% chance. Guess what? The field was all beginner player – they do not know how to do end play, but sure they can do finesse. You end up on bottom board, because with good result on finesse they all produced +1 result, while you got +0. Is this because you are unlucky ?

Another example: you got this known beginner player come to your table for the next session. You think you will got a good score when the bidding finish, your partner lead and seeing they have a total of 36HCP and only play at 4H. That thinking, is totally wrong unfortunately, as they always lost 1 Ace and 1 trump as their 4-4 fit cannot pickup 5 trump card hold by your partner. And you are unlucky now ?

Let’s get another example to make sure that you are “unlucky”. How many times you see (post mortem, of course) that the defender’s lead is the one killing the contract? I mean if the defender not lead a heart, you might just make the contract easily. And upon examining the opening lead hand, there is no particular reason leading the heart. Is this just because you are not lucky ?

Well let us see closer….

What common on all examples above (and in all other event in general) is that what makes you think lucky or unlucky is a function of your expectation. Because it is “unlikely” to be happening but it actually is, then you will say that is “lucky” or “unlucky”. Do the other way around: if it is likely to be happening, and when it is actually happening, will you consider you to be lucky or unlucky? Maybe not because we take it for granted and say to ourselves that it is the way it should be.

One easy way that I know to make it much less frustration is: you need to accept that any event that you do not have control, will constitute random event which means you will not know the exact result. Now, if it is not caused by you (you have no control of it) is it fair if it is blamed on you when the result is not the one you favour? Of course not! For example: if you consider yourself “unlucky” when you fail to finesse that King (i.e: because you are unlucky, the King is offside), have you ever thought that every single person – even the luckiest person on planet – will always fail finessing that particular King? Is this mean everybody is unlucky ? Again the answer is , no.

So, what really happen? Nothing, random event happens all the time. the different is that whether you want to put a notice on it or not. This is why some people define luck as “random event taken personally“. Remember any single happening on our life is practically neutral (have no meaning) – it is up to each of us individually to assign a meaning to it. That’s why 2 person side by side experience the exact same thing could “feel” differently about that same event – this is because the believe and experience that we have in the past “help” or “not helping” us to put a meaning to it.

What we discuss above actually can be applied to all aspect of our life. Life is just that: full of unknown event that give you random result. You can try to keep track all the lucky one and unlucky one -or- just take it easy and use your energy to do better things: like memorise all those bidding systems. .

Conclusion

I remember a phrase make famous (he did not invented it, just said it) by the great golfer Gary Player “The more I practice the luckier I am“. Why it become famous? Because it is actually true. You make your own luck. By “you”, I mean “your skill” – something that you did with your learning, experience  and practice.

But yes, sometimes your skill is the one that “make” you “unlucky” but you know that it can go both way because it is actually a random event. The good thing about random event is that “Law Of Average” will apply in long run. So, at the end, it is up to you to make that particular random event become personal and lead to a believe that you are not a lucky person. Or -as it is- you take it just another random event and believe that whatever you do you will be “luckier” in the long run… Your call !

“Whether you think you are lucky bridge player, or you think you are an unlucky one, either way you are right!” – by 7NTbyme altering Henry Ford’s.

Not to be disrespectful with the famous Shakespeare’s Hamlet’s “To be or not to be”, the fact is that question is exactly what most bridge player have on the table. Sometime play finesse is the winning theme, sometimes just cash the honor without finesse (a.k.a “drop” theme) is the winning theme. This article’s goal is to equip you with that guidelines , so next time you finesse and it did not work, you can at least shut your partner up. Is that good or good…?

The word “finesse” is quite customary to bridge that even major dictionary define it as it is on the bridge table. Meriam Webster define it as “ the withholding of one’s highest card in the hope that a lower card will take the trick because the only opposing higher card is in the hand of an opponent who has already played“. That’s pretty much the definition on the table, right?
Anyway there are many kind of finesse and it will not covered here. But wikipedia has quite thorough definition you can find in here: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Finesse. Check it out as well later.

The purpose of the finesse is clear: to win as many trick as possible (or you can say to lose as few as possible). Sometimes you have AKJ and wonder whether to finesse the , or just hoping the Q is doubleton which will be fallen under the A and K. Sometimes you only have KJ10 and find a play to only lose 1 trick to the Ace. Ans so on and so on.

3 Steps before Finesse

Back to the question, to consider whether or not to do finesse, there are 3 steps that better bridge player need to do:

1. Find Other Line of Play – if possible: finesse is the easier way to get additional trick, hence even beginner can do it. The thing that better bridge player can do is to find any other line of play that will not require finesse at all. This is the ultimate goal. For example: rather than finesse, how about striping other suit and throw-in or end play the RHO (Right Hand Opponent) so you will get “free finesse” (meaning you do not to think as you will play the last) or squeeze play, etc. The point is: try to find other line of play first before you consider finesse.
   .
2. Find Additional Information: Now, you decided that you will do the finesse. Then do the finesse as later as possible while you gather distribution and points on other suits to improve your odds. For example if RHO make opening bid and you are missing the K then it is likely on RHO, -or- RHO already has 10 HCP on other suits – as he did not open then the K will not be with him -or- LHO signals that he have even number of other suit, meaning he only can have either 1 or 3 card on this suit, etc, etc.
   So basically there are 3 source of additional information:
   1. From the bidding (or lack of bidding): distribution and point.
   2. From the signaling (count signal or discard)
   3. From obvious hesitation. For example when you play from hand to finesse AQ on dummy, if LHO pause or sigh or show a little bit hesitation, the missing honor most likely is there.
   .
3. Know The Odds based on distribution split and additional information on (2): the distribution split is as follow (derived from Wikipedia which got it from Encyclopedia of Bridge)
   .

   Probability of Suit Distribution in 2 Hidden Hands
   No of Hidden Cards	Distribution Split	Probability	Combinations	Individual Prob
   2	1 – 1	52%	2	0.260
   	2 – 0	48%	2	0.240
   3	2 – 1	78%	6	0.130
   	3 – 0	22%	2	0.110
   4	2 – 2	41%	6	0.068
   	3 – 1	50%	8	0.062
   	4 – 0	10%	2	0.048
   5	3 – 2	68%	20	0.033
   	4 – 1	28%	10	0.028
   	5 – 0	4%	2	0.020
   6	3 – 3	36%	20	0.018
   	4 – 2	48%	30	0.016
   	5 – 1	15%	12	0.012
   	6 – 0	1%	2	0.007

   If you can remember all the table above (memorize it) that will be the best, otherwise, the much more simplified table below is a-must-to-remember for better bridge player.

   No of Hidden Cards	Distribution Split	Probability
   2	1 – 1	52%
   3	2 – 1	78%
   4	3 – 1	50%
   5	3 – 2	68%
   6	4 – 2	48%
   A Must Remember Table For All
   Better Bridge Player

   A good mnemonics to remember this is: for 2,3-4 hidden cards – anything with 1 is the highest probability. For 5-6 hidden cards, anything with 2 is the highest probability. Don’t bother with 7 or more hidden cards as that’s not your suit…
   We will see below how to use above table on analyzing any situation.

So, Do the Finesse?

Let see 2 side by side example how to assess finesse. In this case the King is the missing honor. On the left example you have 6-5 fit between dummy and hand(only 2 hidden cards) while on the right column you have 5-5 fit with 3 hidden cards. Note: LHO =Left hand Opponent

Finesse The K!

If one asked: with 6-5 fit , what’s the odd the King is with LHO if there is no additional information? The answer is 50%. (it could be on RHO or LHO) as simple as this, regardless of the fit.  So, this is the tricky part: while the likely split of 1 – 1 distribution on 6-5 fit is 52%, the odds that specific card with LHO (or RHO) is split evenly 50%-50% (see prove above). So, if we are talking specific distribution with specific card, we need to use the “Individual Probability” on the first table far above.

The easier to assess the situation is asking: what specific distribution needed to be successful if playing for Ace (cashing)?

• On 6-5 fit, the play of the Ace only successful on: LHO hold 2 (hence RHO got singleton K)-0.26 OR LHO hold singleton K-0.26 => Total 52% ==> Hence go for drop instead finessed (play small to the Ace instead Q)
• On 5-5 fit, the play of the Ace only successful on only when LHO got singleton K – 0.13 OR  LHO got 62 (Hence RHO got singleton K) – 0.13 probability => Total 26% ==> Go for finesse (74% chance).

Now the interesting situation is when you play from hand and LHO show ’2′, has the odds change ? Let see:

When ’2′ has been played by LHO, the situation change as follows:

• On 6-5 fit, LHO only can have either 2 or K2. Hence the play of the Ace successful on: LHO hold 2 (hence RHO got singleton K)-0.26. 0.26 out of possible 0.5 will give you 52% possibility.
• On 5-5 fit, LHO can have 2, 62,K2 and K62. The play of Ace will be successful only if LHO got 62 (hence RHO got singleton K)-0.13. 0.13 out of possible 0.5 will give you 26% possibility.

So, the Odds of the unknown is still the same. But the odds of K with LHO slightly drop because we have additional info that LHO now got 2.

Conclusion:

1. The odds of a finesse is at 50% maximum (as it is only asking if certain honor placed on the LHO rather than RHO, or vice versa). many other line of play will have better than 50% chance.
2. The more successful question is “what’s the odd of cashing (playing all top honor instead of finesse, in the hope dropping the target honor)?” hint:use distribution probability and individual probability  as tabled on the table above.
3. The odd of the unknown will stay the same with subsequent card being played.
4. Combine the odds and additional information to produce the best possible outcome

Let’s see some example to verify the remark above: (The percentage below is the ods of capturing the missing honor by cashing on certain distribution)

One aspect that is not being discussed in relation with Playing With The Best Odds with finesse is the way you play the card, i.e: cashing 1 or 2 top honor first, playing small to Q instead of Q of Ace , etc. This is what I call “safety play” – huge topic with different goal/purpose that will be discuss on other article….

Hope this helps….

The Netherlands wins 2011′s 40th Bridge Champsionship after beat USA in the Final. Being the most pretigious tournament in the world of bridge, this year’s Bermuda Bowl also shown some changes in the map of strength of the Bridge’s powerhouse. It has been for a quite while that USA dominate all sector, now it seems the situation has shifted….

The winner Of Bermuda Bowl 2011

Netherlands Wins 2011 Bermuda Bowl

Finishing 2nd after the round robin, the host nation of the 40th World Bridge Championship has proven that being host give you some advantages. Not so much of cheering supporter in football  but more on the determination to prove themselves that they can do something.  Beating Iceland in Quarter Final 233-142, then Italy on Semi Final 199-170, the Dutch went into final to meet the Bridge superpower USA confidently. And they have shown just that – shifting the powerhouse map in the world of bridge.

Congratulation to The Netherlands Bermuda Bowl team ! Job well done !
Netherlands team: Eric LAURANT(npc), Simon de WIJS, Louk VERHEES JR, Ricco van PROOIJEN, Bauke MULLER, Bas DRIJVER, Sjoert BRINK

The Shift of Powerhouse Map

If you play bridge, you will agree that the fairest form of match (the one which luck factor is minimized) is a duplicate team event. But most of us of club player will only see maybe 8 sessions of 8 boards in a  weekend tournament. Imagine playing 16 board each session, 3 sessions a day from 10:30am to 6pm for straight 7 days ! That’s a total of 336 board of high quality bridge. This is not only tested more of your bidding system, defense teamwork or declarer play, but also demanded your good stamina and endurance.

So, let see the result of 21 round of Round Robin for the last 2 championships and just take the top 50% (just over 50% ensure the team listed have higher probability to have more win than lost), here is the list:

Beside USA, only Japan and China consistently inside the elite list – the rest is mostly European nations.

Of the last 4 Bermuda, USA only win 1 in 2009. 2005, 2007 and 2011 respectively won by Italy, Norway, Netherlands.
But 4 championships before that, from 1997 – 2003, only 1 in 1997 won by France, the rest of the 3 won by USA .

So in other words, European countries has crawled back their dominance over USA. Well, since the Bermuda Bowl started in 1950, it was originally between USA ve Europe. Mostly because only in that part of the world people play bridge. But now bridge has become international sports, we would like to see some black horse to shift the pattern further. Indonesia just did that with the Venice Cup, we need the Bermuda Bowl become more and more competitive. We like fierce competition that will make bridge become more popular and more enjoyable.

But do not get me wrong, the fact that USA as only 1 country can consistently show their strength over a dozen or so European countries (who “take turn” one over another – no prominent consistent 1 country to challenge USA), then de facto, USA is still the strongest bridge playing country in the world.

No HUM and BS on Round Robin

One item that need to be highlighted for all of us that WBF (World Bridge Organization) take a good solid stance (since 2005) on HUM (Highly Unusual Method) and Brown Sticker bidding system:

No Highly Unusual Methods (HUM) or Brown Sticker (BS) conventions may be used in the round robin of the Bermuda Bowl or Venice Cup, and they are not permitted in any stage of the d’Orsi Senior Bowl.

In my opinion, HUM and BS – maybe more effective (doubtfully?) as a system, but it is just confusing to the opponent. The opponent not just have understood what it meant, but also need to prepare another system how to deal with it. So, when the result is good, it is not because the player is better, but just the system is too confusing. So, in a way it is not fair.

Therefore, when you play in your club, while it is looks fancy, but if you win because you use some strange methods that confuses people, do not fell proud about it. If you really good, use the plain standard system and you still win, that will show you that you are the better bridge player.

Until the next Bermuda Bowl in Bali !

Still warm from 2011′s 40th World Bridge Team Championship in VeldHoven (near Einhoven)-Netherlands, the French Ladies team has just won the Venice Cup while their Senior counterpart also did their country proud to win the d’Orsi Senior Bowl. But it is Indonesian Ladies team who proud the most as they were soaring to break domination from European countries.

Every 2 years where the year is odd number,  all eyes of every Bridge player in the world should focus to World Bridge Team Championship a.k.a Bermuda Bowl. This top of the top tournament starts with grueling 21 round of Round Robin as a start, then continued with the top 8 teams meet at Knock Out stage, is really very tough tournament to be in (that’s if you happen to qualify ). The one never lose on this 3 stages sudden death (Quarter Final, Semi Final and Final) win the cup. Bermuda Bowl for Open team, Venice Cup for Ladies team and d’Orsi Senior bowl for the senior category (over 60 years).

Title-Duo For France

French Wins Venice Cup 2011

The French Ladies team has different story. Qualified last from the round robin, the French ladies turn the table upside down when they beat China on Quarter Final, the Netherlands on Semi Final and finally beat Indonesia 196-103 to claim the Venice Cup.

Congratulation to France for this title duo !
France’s d’Orsi Senior Bowl team: Phillippe CRONIER (npc), Philippe VANHOUTTE, Philippe POIZAT, Patrice PIGANEAU, Francois LEENHARDT, Guy LASSERRE, Patrick GRENTHE
France’s Venice Cup team: Thomas BESSIS(npc), Sylvie WILLARD, Joanna NEVE, Daniele GAVIARD, Catherine D’OVIDIO, Benedicte CRONIER, Veronique BESSIS

Indonesia Breaks Europe Dominance

In the early days, world championship on bridge is just between USA vs European countries… because that’s where they started. This year is quite different. In all final of the 2 main events: Venice Cup and D’orsi Senior Bowl, there is no USA on the team who plays since even  the semi final – this is quite unusual as USA usually dominates. As comparison, in 1977, it was USA1 vs USA2 in final of Bermuda Bowl. In 2011, the only USA team is at Bermuda Bowl final defeated by the Dutch.

The rest of the team playing are of those European countries: France, Italy, Netherlands. Sweden, Poland .. except one… Indonesia.

Left to Right: Bert, Riantini, Lusje, Suci, Fera, Joice, Kristina

This achievement is really a breakthrough for the Ladies sector, as their Open team have achieved the 4th place in 1975 in Bermuda Bowl and the senior also get silver at 2005 and 2007′s d’Orsi Senior.
Half of the team playing at 2011 were playing on 2009′s Venice Cup where they unfortunately just need 5VP to qualify to knock out stage but missed it. This year with 3 fresh player, after gruelling boot camps, trials, competitions, tests, they just have proven that they can get prestigious rank at international level.

Watch out this team as they are relatively still very young team. With continuous learning and preparation, the Cup could fly to Jakarta in not so distant future.

Congratulation to Indonesia Ladies Team and Indonesian Bridge Association (GABSI) for the Silver medal and record braking achievement!

Indonesian Ladies team: Bert Toar POLII (npc), Lusje Olha BOJOH, Fera DAMAYANTI, Suci Amita DEWI, Kristina Wahyu MURNIATI, RIANTINI, Julita Grace TUEJE.

Well done, ladies !!

Until 2013 in Bali….

Everybody will retire, some  sooner or some later. And beside the massive blockage of cash flow (unless you retired rich), one thing that have drastic change is your brain activity. From juggling job task, remembering stuff to be brought, do presentation, closing sales, argument with colleuage, emailling, etc etc to practically nothing…zip…

Off course, for “honey moon” period, you will feel stress-free and light, but after a shortwhile, you will feel eerie feeling of emptiness – in term of brain acticity…

The problem with this is, just like muscle, if your brain is not being used it will start to shrink and diminished itself. Try ask someone with that bicep bump to not doing exercise for some extended period, I bet the bump will diminished. This is mostly why most of do-nothing retiree generally forgetful, senile and some develop sign of dementia or even Alzheimer.

Want to avoid or minimize all of those? Just play bridge regularly in your local bridge club!! Here is why…

Play Bridge to Keep Your Brain Active

11 Reasons Why Regular Bridge Will Keep Your Brain In Better Shape

1. Long term memory: you need to remember/memorize all those bidding systems, conventions, etc
2. Short term memory: remember which of the 52 card that has been played (at least 12 cards: Ace, King, Queen , Jack from each suit)
3. Count the distribution 1 to 13 times 4 suit, do the sum/difference from result, loser and winner count.
4. Infer/Deduct what partner has in term of point and distribution from the bidding of lack of bidding.
5. Keep alert with partner distribution/discard/preference signal
6. Play a hand in timely manner (6 minutes per deal)
7. Social skill:  discuss, debating, hang out with your partner and bridge friends – compare to just by yourself in a room with computer….
8. Endurance: to keep thinking, counting and playing for hours during competition
9. Regular activity with a twist: you can have regular schedule to play bridge with occasional intercity or even overseas tournament to attend – playing with pleasure.
10. While bridge force  you to stay alert for hours, it does not require any physical fitness which hinder older people to do any other sport.
    (This is the exact answer people why people think sometimes mistakenly that bridge is only for “older people” – that’s because you can play bridge until 100 years old or more – can you still play soccer on your 70? – maybe not)
11. Occasional win/defeat will force your brain to get better and achieving more. Also some satisfaction and proud feeling when you win or even in top 5! Reward yourself with achievement. (Of course if you are not improving at all, you need to have at least temporary bridge coach)

And additionally, unlike other sport, the cost of playing bridge is not expensive at all.  Just usually “table money” of $5 per play plus annual fee of the club (varies from $20 to $50).  Some win even will give you money prize!

Or even better, just play with 3 other close friend at your place or theirs! just need a pen and paper and a deck of $2 playing card. And you can be busy the whole day – while enjoying the comfort of your own place and that cup of tea/ coffee of yours…

And it’s never too late to learn bridge. You can start playing in an hour from know nothing at all. Maybe about 6 months of regular playing to make you not in the bottom of the list. After a year or 2 you will have that occasional win on “your day”!!

Let us all play bridge, having fun, and keep the brain active !

See you all in the bridge club!

With 13 cards on each suit, democratically you need to have at least 7 cards to claim “majority” on the suit (4-3, 5-2). But what consider “good fit” will be at least 8 cards fit (4-4, 5-3, 6-2). While of course the more card is  the better when declaring a suit contract, remember that , sometimes, having a double suits fit,  playing 4-4 fit as trump gives you more trick than even 5-4 or 5-3 fit as the 5-3/5-4 suit can be used for discarding losers (while 4-4 become trump). Then the important question. There are 4 important types of support, does your bidding system covers it ?

4 Kinds of Support

To align the understanding: if partner open 1H with at least 5 card Heart 12-19, then at this initial stage you will put partner with 12 HCP and 5 card H – so if you have 3 card of Heart on your hand, that’s a 3 card support : 5-3 fit we say (which is a 8 cards fit).

So, the 4 kinds of support are:

1. Weak Support: you have more than 8 cards fit but don’t have much high card point (HCP). The HCP count perhaps in 0 – 6 range.
2. Simple Support: you have at least 8 cards fit and the High Card count is only at part-score. The HCP usually in 6-10 range.
3. Limit Support: you have at least 8 cards fit and the High Card count is in the borderline between game and part-score. The HCP usually in 11-12 range.
4. Strong Support: you have at least 8 cards fit and the High Card count already put your side in game zone (or better). The HCP is 12+.

One other important fact: additional card support will usually additional trick (in term of we can use it for ruffing loser or even just reducing opponent trump holding). Example: with 5-3 fit and opponent lead trump as opening, then you can only trump 2 loser maximum. But with 5-4 fits, even the opening lead is the trump, you can still ruff 3 losers giving you 1 extra winning trick.

We will see how important all 4 aspect above and the extra card support can be incorporated into your bidding system to give you a much better result than the crowd.

1 Minor Opening

If you read this opening statistic article, you will know that you will open 1 minor or 1 Major more than 60% all the time. But playing Natural system, the 1 minor opening have several variations, mainly can be divided as two as follows:

1. “Better Minor” or convenient minor and its variant: both 1 Club and 1 Diamond opening guarantee at least 3 cards. (1 Club promises 3 card Club, 1 Diamond promises 3 cards Diamond). Furthermore, if you have 3-3 minor, always open with 1 Club.
2. “Short Club” and its variant: this is where 1 Diamond opening guarantee 4 cards Diamond, so that the 1 Club opening can only promises 2 cards Club (so you need to alert 1 Club opening)

What people do not realize is that there is only 2 kinds of distribution that consist of 3 cards: 4-4-3-2 and 4-3-3-3. To be more precise, the chance that partner has 3 cards Diamond when he open 1 Diamond is only 4%. The chance that partner has 3 cards Club when he opens 1 Club is only 14% (higher compare to 1 Diamond  as if you have 3-3 minor you always open 1C) – see this for more stats.

So, in other word at least 96% of all time, partner will have at least 4 cards Diamond when he opens 1 D and at least 86% off all time he has 4 cards Club when open 1C.

Therefore in designing you bidding system for 1 minor opening, you can assume that partner has 4 cards.

With this assumptions, below is an example:

You can see above than more advanced system seems to be more aggressive, but it actually logical. This is the story.

Say your partner open 1D, your hand consist of 5 card Diamond but only 6 HCP. This used to be simple 1D-2D bid. But guess what ? Opponent got majors and the HCP pretty much split between us and them… So, the auction most likely ended with opponent playing 2H or 2S or even 3 level.

So started from here, the bidding system evolve with what we call “inverted minor”. With strong (13+ HCP), the system will now do 1D-2D or 1C-2C. The justification is that even though opponent got major, with 25+ HCP belong to us, then it is less likely that opponent will jump in to the bidding as often. And on the other hand, the simple raise 1C-3C or 1D-3D will force opponent to compete directly at level 3.

With this thinking, how about if you have 6 card Diamond-void Heart but 2 HCP only. (meaning the opponent could have 40HCP-2 (Yours) – 12 (partner) =26 HCP) – will this be useful with 1c-3C? Of course… it will make opponent have more difficulty getting their best fit (hence their game) at level 3.  Therefore, since then we will see that 1m-3m become the weak version of the support  and 3 om (other minor) or 2 om become the simple raise.

Then, how about hands that is in between strong and simple raise ? (meaning 10-12 HCP hand) This type of hand is quite useful as if partner is not minimum then game would be easy.  So, 2NT bid is assigned to show this.

Please note that in 1 minor opening, when we are talking about “game”, the first priority would be 3NT rather than 5C or 5D. Therefore, after showing fit, the next thing you might want to do is showing stopper.

1 Major Opening

Handling 1 Major opening is easier as it starts already with guarantee 5 cards with partner. (Meaning you will need just 3 card to declare that you have a good fit). Also when aiming for the “game” contract, we usually prefer 4H o 4S rather than 3NT.

Then by experience, we can tell that as long as you have some unbalance hand, having extra trump card on the dummy that can be used to ruff loser is basically additional trick. With this in mind, many player that use 5 card Major system employs what so called “Bergen raise” to differentiate 3 card support and 4+ card support to grab this advantage. (Imagine everybody has 10 tricks, but only bid 2S. Your partnership is the only one on the field bidding 4S because you know that partner have 4 or more support card in trump)

So, in general, using Bergen raise is recommended and will be good for your result in the long term.

Below is an example how you use your bidding system:

Please note 1NT on the example above is “Forcing NT” convention which basically ask opener to bid their second suit (usually at least 3 card minor) or rebid the Major if he/she has 6+cards. This is also very useful and competitive convention.

Feeling unease with “how am I suppose to remember all of these” syndrome?
Then try to use mnemonic and notation that will probably help you. For example: you can say 3M-1 (1 bid before 3H or 3S) is invite with 4+cards support and 3M-2 is simple raise with 4+cards support, etc.

Just remember, all of these little advantages will accumulate their benefit over time!

Perhaps knowing the statistic of every possible hand only need to be known by Expert that develop a bidding system. But sometimes, you just need to know which is the most probable hand that your partner has. Why? Of course to give you the best contract and giving you the top board !

For example: partner open 1S (natural) and you only have doubleton Spade, 3 cards Heart, 4 cards Diamond 4 cards Club with 8HCP. Playing 1NT Forcing, you just bid 1NT in which partner rebid with 2C (better minor, could be 3 card -  only when 5-3-3-2). The question: should you play 2C (with possibility 4-3 fit) or play 2S(with at least 5-2 fit)? Well, 2S could be 1 down while 2C is making -or- 2S got 8 tricks but 2C have 9 tricks -or- the other way around. Of course many other factors such as how the defense conducted, the location of high card, the distribution of the card, etc play a big role making it impossible to predict each individual case.

So, this is where the statistic is useful. If you follow the probability number, in the long run you will get better result.

Hand Distribution Probability

Let us starts with the hand distribution probability below (simplified, distribution not mentioned below have very very small probability – see this for more detail):

With above example, without being too technical about statistic, we can say that the probability partner has 3 card C is only if the distribution is 5-3-3-2 (16%). While the possibility partner has 4 or more card is when the distribution is 5431 or 5422 or 5440 (13+11+1.2=25.2% probability) – of course assuming with 5-5 partner will bid 3C and with 6+card S partner would bid 2S. Therefore we can conclude that possibility partner has 4 card is higher than 3 card. So in above example, you should always pass and hope for the best.

Warning: to be statistically correct, we just can say the relativity over another (25.2% is higher than 16%) but the actual number of the probability (25.2% and 16%) is not really accurate as we need to consider that the 5 cards could be from 3 other suits as well (i.e: considering there are 4 suits that can become the 5 cards, then the probability is closer to 16%/4 = 4% from total population, etc).

High Card Distribution

The 2nd useful table is the high card distribution probability (see below)

As you can see the probability of having 10 HCP is the highest (40 total HCP divided to 4 person) and gradually decreasing toward 0 and 40.

So, what is the probability partner has 12-21 HCP? Easy, just add all the percentage: 8+7+5.7+4.4+3.3+2.4+1.6+1.0+0.6+0.4 = 34.4%

Then how much probability partner open 1H (5+ card H 12-21)?
Answer: 34.4% (From point range: 12-21) x 69% (all hand distribution with 5,6,7,8,9 card) x 25% (1 out of 4 suit) = 6% (1 in 17 board)

How much the probability partner open 2H (weak 2, 6-10HCP, 6 card H)?
42.3% (from point/HCP %: 6.6+8+8.9+9.4+9.4) x 15.3 (from distribution: 6-3-3-2, 6-4-3-1, 6-4-2-1, 6-4-3-0) x 25% (1 out of 4 suit) = 1.6%.

So, in this case opening 1H has about 4x more probability) than 2H.

Therefore with similar method we can construct a popular opening hand possibility as follow:

The above table means for ever 2NT opening that you did, you, on average, will open 10 times 1NT, 18 times 1C or 1D, about 2 times 2C, etc.

This table tells you that if you just learning a new system, start with 1m, 1M and 1NT to cover the most wide spectrum hand that you can handle. Do not worry too much about 2NT or 3X sequence as they will rarely come.

Hope this can be useful.

Statistically in general, you will spend 25% of your game of bridge doing the opening lead. Most of the time the contract is not really sensitive to the opening lead. But with the bidding become more precise and aggressive where wrong opening lead can determine whether a slam or game is made, then to make sure the person across the table cannot whinge and to make you a more than average bridge player, for sure there are some good guideline or maybe rule of thumb when it comes to do opening lead. This is one of them…

This article is one out of three about Opening Lead. See: Part 1, Part 2 and Part 4.

General Theme

The nature of No Trump defense is to race against declarer in establishing tricks from the long suit and/or high card. Defenders has advantage as they are the one doing the first opening lead. Therefore, timing is everything. If you have long suit but it will takes 3 tricks to established, then probably declarer will already have his needed trick. Holding Queen, Jack or 10 is often more valuable than just Ace (QJ9x [possible 2 tricks] is more defensively valuable than Axxx [just 1 trick] )

Remember: the guideline below is only for opening lead (trick #1) . The subsequent lead is unique for each hand depending on dummy, partner’s signal, declarer play, etc.

Not recommended

1. Lead Ace without having the King (unless it’s partner’s suit)
2. Declarer/dummy long suit (unless you have very strong and long suit)
3. Lead singleton/doubleton (unless strong indication partner could have this suit)

Priority guideline

In order of priority:

1. Lead according to specific bid (if any). For example: lead directing double, lightner double, etc
2. Your own strong and long suit (4+ more cards with at least 2 touching honors), only if you have side entry
3. Partner suit (if partner has bid)
4. Your long suit that opponent has bid (but your suit has to be very strong, at least 3 honors sequence, i.e:KQJ9x)
5. Any suit with at least 3 top sequence, e.g: 9872, J1098 – this lead will not likely to give away tricks to opponent
6. Long suit with at least 1 honor and 4+cards – risky attacking lead if only 4 cards, but the longer the safer, more honor the safer.
   Lead with only 1 honor or broken sequence (KJxx+ or AQxx+) will only be successful if partner has honor or length on the led suit. That’s why it’s risky.
   Do not lead this against 6NT or 7NT. But prefer this lead after opponent preemptive.
7. Unbid major suit (choose longer and/or stronger one) – in the hope that this is partner long suit.
   Major suit got more priority because usually declarer will fall into NT contract once they cannot find fit in Major. Meaning usually they don’t have the most major holding on the table.
8. Unbid minor suit(choose longer and/or stronger one)- in the hope that this is partner long suit
9. Dummy second suit , if not: dummy first suit.
   In case opponent bid all the suit, leading dummy suit is better than declarer suit as usually declarer will have stronger hand. Dummy second suit is preferred as it is usually the weaker one.

Example 1:

West	North	East-Declarer	South(You)
1♥	1♠	1NT	Pass
3NT	All Pass
♠32 Dealer: West ♥9876 Vul: NS ♦KQJ109 ♣K2

Comment: The distribution of point is roughly known: West has around 19 HCP where East have at least 6 HCP , since you have 9 HCP then partner will have maximum of 6HCP. Looking at your hand, you have 5 tricks already if K of Club can take a trick and become the entry of your strong diamond. So, instead of leading partner suit, just lead  Diamond. with this scenario, partner know your strength and you can still lead partner suit later on (Priority 2).

Example 2:

Comment: With declarer has at least 15HCP and West has around 10HCP, then partner will have around 9HCP. You don’t have really a strong suit, declarer has Heart and dummy has Spade so, the long suit that you lead should be the Diamond. (Priority 6)

Example 3:

Comment: East has around 16HCP, partner at least 12, and West will have max 7 HCP. You don’t have strong suit, just lead partner’s suit. Heart. (Priority 3)

Next read: Part 4 – Which Card to Lead?

Statistically in general, you will spend 25% of your game of bridge doing the opening lead. Most of the time the contract is not really sensitive to the opening lead. But with the bidding become more precise and aggressive where wrong opening lead can determine whether a slam or game is made, then to make sure the person across the table cannot whinge and to make you a more than average bridge player, for sure there are some good guideline or maybe rule of thumb when it comes to do opening lead. This is one of them…

This article is one out of three about Opening Lead. See: Part 1, Part 3 and Part 4.

General Theme

The nature of defending suit contract is to cash/claim side suit winner (before ditched by declarer) or “steal” declarer trump trick (by ruffing the side suit). Therefore holding Ace or King while defending suit contract is much better than having Queen or Jack since by the third round of a suit, usually somebody already can use the trump card to win.

Remember: the guideline below is only for opening lead (trick #1) . The subsequent lead is unique for each hand depending on dummy, partner’s signal, declarer play, etc.

Not recommended

1. Never underlead from Ace for opening lead (lead small from Axx+. If you really need to lead that suit, lead the Ace)
2. Do not lead singleton trump suit (even declarer has 10 cards fit, partner can still have Kx)
3. Do not lead declarer suit other than trump suit (if warranted)
4. Do not lead doubleton with K,Q,J or 10 (Kx, Qx, Jx or even 10x)

Priority guideline

In order of priority:

1. Lead according to specific bid (if any). For example: lead directing double, lightner double, etc
2. AK doubleton (not trump suit)
   The plan is to cash the first two tricks. Partner need to give suit preference at 2nd trick. Switch to partner’s suit at trick#3, if this win, partner then can give a ruff.
3. Lead long suit (4 card+) headed by AK
   Hoping partner to ruff .
4. Lead Ace (not trump suit), only when:
   - singleton Ace
   - defend against 5 level contract, and the suit of the Ace is unbid suit
   - defend against slam in suit contract
   - declarer preempt (likely do not have many other point in side suit)
   - the suit is very long (7+ cards)
5. If you have long trump (say 4+ card) and long side suit, lead your longest suit to force declarer to ruff and shorten his/her trump holding (forcing defense)
6. Lead trump , only when:
   - opponent made sacrifice bid  (meaning your side have most of HCP, opponent trick will be mainly from trump, hence to avoid extra trick from ruffing, lead trump)
   - opponent avoid No Trump (obviously due to lack of HCP or stopper)
   - you have long and strong trump (to prevent declarer makes additional trick by ruffing in dummy)
   - if you are strong at declarer second suit
   - if declarer show 2 suiters, lead trump (For example: 1H – 1 S// 3C – 4H, which obviously shows that declarer have 5cards Heart and 5 cards Club: lead heart!)
   - defense against grand slam (unless singleton)
   - do not lead trump if you don’t have any reason above, especially if you have singleton trump.
7. Singleton (you want to get a ruff, so you have to have some trump!)
   - only if partner can have entry (in the hope partner can return the suit and give you a ruff)
   - avoid singleton lead if your trump holding is strong enough (will give the same trick without ruffing)
8. Suit with 2 or more touching honors (safe attacking suit)
9. Partner’s suit (if partner bid, especially overcall)
   - if you hold AQx+ in partner suit and not sure if partner got the K do not lead (if partner has overcalled, he is sure to have the K)
10. Lead opponent side suit if you have length and stopper (minimum QJ10+ or better) in that suit (giving partner a ruff without risking establishing the suit)
11. Ace from doubleton
12. Your longest suit with no honor
13. Suit with honor  or broken honors (risky attacking suit)
14. Unbid suit
15. Dummy first suit

Example 1:

West	North	East-Declarer	South(You)
	Pass	1♠	2♥
2♠	pass	4♠	all pass
♠32 Dealer: North ♥AQT82 ♦QJ9 ♣K72

Comment: Dummy will likely to hold about 6-8HCP and declarer at least has 16HCP for his jump to game. With 12 point on your hand, partner will have at most 4-6 HCP. So, going through the priority above, you will find that leading Q of Diamond (priority is the best choice. This lead did not give away any trick (if oponent have A and K, they always get 2 tricks. If partner has K, declarer always got 1 trick only. If partner has A, declarer always got his trick, but if dummy has the K, the lead is excellent)

Example 2:

Comment: Lead club (Priority 1 – Ace or King is up to your agreement with partner) and wait the preference signal from partner when you play the second trick of club. The other plus in leading this AK doubleton is you will be able to see the dummy without giving up any trick and you are still in the next lead.

Example 3:

West	North	East-Declarer	South(You)
	Pass	4♥	All pass
♠Q2 Dealer: West ♥Q32 Vul: NS ♦A32 ♣J9532

Comment: Declarer made preemptive call and everybody pass. So, lead the Ace (priority 4).  On other hand when you don’t have the Ace, lead Club (priority 13) as in general you need to be more aggressive if opponent makes preemptive call.

Next read: Lead against NT contract – part 3

Statistically in general, you will spend 25% of your game of bridge doing the opening lead. Most of the time the contract is not really sensitive to the opening lead. But with the bidding become more precise and aggressive where wrong opening lead can determine whether a slam or game is made, then to make sure the person across the table cannot whinge and to make you a more than average bridge player, for sure there are some good guideline or maybe rule of thumb when it comes to do opening lead. This is one of them…

This article is one out of three about Opening Lead. See: Part 2, Part 3 and Part 4.

Choosing the opening lead should NEVER be automatic anymore. You should consider:

1. What indication from the bidding ? What would be likely the theme of declarer play ? Should you attack or passively wait?
2. Is it suit contract or No Trump Contract ? (They need to be defensed DIFFERENTLY)
3. Which card to be pulled from your hand ?

So, (1) and (2) above are for choosing which suit to lead, and (3) is the easiest one as this is mostly what have you agreed with your partner (partnership agreement).

Passive Lead

Passive lead is a lead from suit with no honor that has 3 or longer cards. For trump suit, it’s from 2 or 3 card (not singleton) with no honor. The idea is not to give any extra trick for declarer. Of course there are occasions where this lead fail to work, for example: you lead from 3 rags and partner has doubleton Queen – without the lead declarer has to guess but with the lead you make it easier to declarer. But most of the time, passive lead will benefit your side, especially when the condition is one of below:

1. Declarer have poor fit with dummy (reluctant fit by dummy)
2. Minimum points (for example: partner takeout double and you still have 6HCP)
3. Declarer has no side suit
4. Dummy is weak
5. Defending Grand slam contract
   On grand slam, good opponent will have most of the high card (or void in certain suit) – so just lead passively.
6. Defending 6NT contract
   Especially with honor on other suit, you need to just wait the trick as partner usually doesn’t have or very minimum high card

Active or Attacking Lead

Active lead is a lead from suit with honor: sequence, broken or even only 1 honor with the intention of killing the contract as early as possible. This leads carry certain risk (giving declarer a trick otherwise cannot be get) and sometime depended on partner to support the attack. For example: leading from K432, this require partner to have at least 1 top honor (A or Q) in order to succeed. The risk is give away trick that declarer doesn’t deserve (Declarer may have Queen doubleton facing Ace with 2 small card – only 1 tricks without the lead)

1. Dummy has long suit (which can be established as trick or to ditch loser)
2. Opponent has shown extra value (for example: opponent try to go to slam)
3. Against small slam in suit contract (6NT need to be defended passively on opening lead)
4. If opponent (especially declarer) made pre-emptive bid (hence unlikely have too much strength on other suit)

Choosing The Lead

So, before making an opening lead, you should got the feel (use the guidance above) whether to do the attack or just passively wait for the trick. Based on that, if then decide which suit to lead.The next 2 articles will give you a picture regarding Lead against suit contract- part 2 or Lead against NT contract – part 3.

And as mention above, if you have chosen the suit that you want to lead, the easiest part is to choose which card on the suit to lead (This is discussed in9 Part 4)

By all means the list above is not exhaustive list. There are some other conditions that is not listed as well as there will be condition that suits neither. The good thing is that all player in the field (assuming you play duplicate) will most likely experience the same problem, the bad news is you still have to lead.

Just remember this: with bidding system is more and more precise, complicated and aggressive, there will be more and more contract that can be made or not depending on what is the opening lead.

So, you should always have a good reason for your choosing. Prepare the answer of “why you lead that?” from partner – every time !

Next read: Part 2- Lead against suit contract- part 2